РАСЧЕТ СТОКА РЕК УЗБЕКИСТАНА НА БУДУЩИЕ ДЕСЯТИЛЕТИЯ НА ПРИМЕРЕ РЕКИ ЧАТКАЛ
Keywords:
Chatkal River, long-term changes of water availability, HBV hydrological model, Khudaidadsay hydrological station, climate scenario, water discharge, surface flow, Mountain RiversAbstract
The article analyzes characteristic (average, maximum, and minimum) air temperatures, precipitation, and average long-term water discharges for all observation periods based on data from the Chatkal, Chimgan, and Pskem meteorological stations and the Khudaidadsay hydrological station in the Tashkent region. Changes in hydrometeorological data for long-term periods and months studied. The HBV hydrological model used to calculate the Chatkal River water content forecast. The results showed that since 2040, average long-term air temperatures have increased by 2.5-3.0°C at all meteorological stations. Over this period, average long-term discharges fluctuate between 95-125 m3/s, especially under the CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 scenario. Analysis of the graphs of maximum and minimum air temperatures and water discharges showed that floods occur approximately a month earlier after 2030. This change explained by global warming, especially in the Central Asian region.
